For most of 2023, Jannik Sinner looked to be two steps away from the top of men’s tennis. He lost in five sets to Stefanos Tsitsipas at the Australian Open. He blew match points against Daniel Altmaier, then ranked 71 spots below him, to lose another five-setter at Roland-Garros. At Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic had little trouble dismissing Sinner in straight sets. And at the U.S. Open, Sinner fell just short against Alexander Zverev in, yet again, five sets. Sinner is incredibly talented, holding immense power in both his forehand and backhand, but seemed to have some indefinable weakness. Why had he lost all those five-setters? Zverev, Tsitsipas and especially Altmaier were not better players, and Sinner was not wilting physically. He just could not summon the tennis he needed at critical times.
During that period, Sinner watched his rival Carlos Alcaraz, two years younger, beat Djokovic in the 2023 Wimbledon final, and reach world number one. Fast-forward to today: Sinner has won the Australian Open, his first major title, beating Djokovic in the semifinals along the way (Djokovic was previously 10–0 in Australian Open semifinals). He just won the Miami Open. Having lost his first six matches to Daniil Medvedev, who Sinner beat in the Australian Open final, Sinner has now won the last five — and done so in a way that imagining how Medvedev can beat him again is difficult.
Sinner has won 22 of his last 23 matches, the lone defeat a three-set loss to Alcaraz in March. He has been, comfortably, the best player in the world.
There is little in his game to nitpick. In their Australian Open semifinal, Djokovic was uncharacteristically flat, playing his worst big match in recent memory, but Sinner had already beaten Djokovic twice at the end of 2023. When Alcaraz got the best of Sinner, he hit off-pace balls to Sinner’s forehand, disrupting that shot’s typically awesome rhythm. Sinner failed to adjust, opening himself up to some criticism. Then he turned around and won his next tournament, destroying Grigor Dimitrov (who had taken out Alcaraz two rounds earlier) in the final.
Men’s tennis may be at an inflection point. Djokovic, holder of a men’s record 24 major titles and is by near-consensus the best player ever, dominated 2023, winning three of the four majors and the year-end finals. This year though, he has finally lost some steam, not only having his Australian Open crown stripped but losing early at the next big tournament, Indian Wells. Alcaraz won Indian Wells, but prior to that, had gone nearly nine months without winning a title.
Sinner has stepped perfectly into the gap by essentially forgetting how to lose. He is now ranked #2 in the world, and with Djokovic seemingly finally starting to decline at 36 years old, looks primed to take over the top spot shortly. Sinner, at 22, only has one younger rival to worry about in Alcaraz.
With the Miami Open over, clay season is coming up. Tennis is unique in that play takes place on a range of surfaces, and performing well on one does not guarantee quality play on another. The great Pete Sampras won Wimbledon on grass seven times and never made it past the semifinals of the clay-court Roland-Garros tournament.
Sinner seems to be that rare player with great surface versatility. His game is incredibly balanced — he is not only incredibly powerful, capable of dominating on slow courts; he is fast and defends beautifully. His volleys, while not outrageously sharp, are easily good enough to be an asset when he needs them. He serves well and returns even better. His winning streak has come on hard courts, but he is a two-time semifinalist at Wimbledon and has pushed, if not beaten, the best clay-court player of all time in Rafael Nadal.
Still, Sinner is somewhat unproven on clay. We are yet to see his new-and-improved form on the surface. While his loss to Altmaier at Roland-Garros last year figures to be an aberration, Sinner must perform better that the 2024 tournament to solidify that impression. Now expectations are higher than ever.
The best players in tennis can rarely relax. Rise above the pack, and everyone starts thinking that much harder about how to tear you down. For now, no one besides Alcaraz (and that was just in their most recent match) seems to have the answers for Sinner, but that could change rapidly. Djokovic has rebounded several times from apparent declines and could easily start winning big tournaments again. Sinner could come down from his incredible stretch — everyone does eventually. For now, though, he is on top of the world.
