Fall is here and with it comes the 2017–2018 NBA season. Before we look to the upcoming slate of NBA action, let’s look back at the wild offseason that preceded it. Between July and mid-October, seven 2016 All-Stars — Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Gordon Hayward, Kyrie Irving, and Isaiah Thomas — switched teams, an NBA record. The fun did not stop there, as the NBA made Nike its apparel sponsor, changed the lottery system, abolished the conference format of All-Star games in favor of a playground type model where two captains pick teams, welcomed a new, highly touted class of rookies, and considered abolishing seeding by conference for the playoffs. To top it all off, players thoughtfully and passionately responded to President Trump’s comments about the Warriors visiting the White House, and NFL players kneeling during the national anthem, showcasing why the NBA is considered the most socially conscious of the four major American sports leagues. All of these exciting transactions and rule changes promise entertaining storylines for the upcoming season, except, perhaps, where it counts most: the finals.
The season kicked off Tuesday when the Cavs hosted the Celtics and the Warriors hosted the Rockets. Experts have the Warriors and Cavs as the early favorites for the top two seeds in their respective conferences, and the Rockets and Celtics trailing close behind them. With Kyrie Irving demanding a trade away from LeBron and Cleveland, and the new look Rockets with Chris Paul in-tow getting their first look at an even better Warriors squad, opening night could foreshadow a dramatic and explosive regular season. Since many teams got deeper this offseason, the regular season battle for the playoffs, especially in the West, will certainly be intriguing.
Let’s start in the West. The Warriors show no signs of relinquishing their stranglehold on their conference. With one season under their belt with Kevin Durant and the addition of the Nick Young, A.K.A Swaggy P, this Warriors team will be more prolific — and more entertaining — than ever. Golden State’s immediate challengers in the West are Oklahoma City and Houston. The Rockets and Thunder must hope that their new talent meshes, otherwise, the Warriors will be more dominant than expected. Historical precedent and statistical measures like FiveThirtyEight’s CARM-Elo model, which accounts for each player’s WAR (wins above replacement) projection, plus total years of playoff experience on a roster, favor the Rockets and Thunder figuring things out and grabbing the two and three seeds in the west, respectively. As usual, San Antonio comes into the season as underrated as ever — this time deservedly so after failing to engage in the NBA arms race this summer. Nevertheless, San Antonio should be able to coax a 55-win season out of its roster thanks to the combination of Gregg Popovich’s coaching wizardry and the bionic superstardom of Kawhi Leonard. I think OKC’s potential ball-sharing problems in the last few minutes of close games will be enough to cause them to lose a few more games than they should, giving the Spurs a good shot to finish third in the West. If you ever find yourself doubting San Antonio this season, just remember, barring a Kawhi injury: death, taxes, and the Spurs winning 50-plus games.
So, what about the rest of the West? The league-wide consensus is that Minnesota will make the playoffs for the first time since 2004, and we have good reason to suspect they will. For starters, Minnesota did what few other teams did this offseason; they added talent to the starters and reserves while keeping their young stars happy, traded for Jimmy Butler and Lou Williams, signed Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford, and maxed out Andrew Wiggins last week. These moves, however, did not provide the Wolves with any extraordinary three-point shooters, which in today’s NBA is essential. Jimmy Butler’s addition will provide reliable primary and secondary scoring options, and his defense will make up for Andrew Wiggins’ lack of skill on the defensive end. Jeff Teague at point guard will bring the total number of players in the Wolves’ backcourt who can shoot threes at or above the league average up to one. Fortunately, Karl Anthony-Towns looks to be a generational talent and Jamal Crawford will agelessly break ankles off the bench, so the Wolves could very well take the next step and put together a winning season. I am projecting no higher than 48 wins, which, if they hit, could be good enough for the four seed in the West.
After Minnesota, the New Orleans Pelicans have the most intriguing roster outside of Los Angeles. Can Alvin Gentry — the head coach who occupies the hottest seat in the NBA — wed Anthony Davis and Demarcus Cousins together in a coherent offense? Will Jrue Holliday and Rajon Rondo make that much of a difference? The answer is no. The Pelicans’ pairing of two of the best big men in the league harkens back to the days when David Robinson and Tim Duncan terrorized and overpowered the league on the Spurs, but so far, AD and Boogie have not shown they can make it work. The Pelicans will not escape mediocrity, due mainly to their atrocious bench. By the trade deadline, Cousins will be on the trading block and Gentry will be shown the door. If the Pelicans hold onto Cousins and eventually lose him in free agency, there is a scary scenario in which Davis, frustrated with the organization, lets his eye wander to Boston, where Danny Ainge, somehow, has positioned the Celtics as the hush-hush favorite to land him, should he become a free agent.
In Los Angeles, we have two lovable underdogs (do not tell that to Lavar Ball). The Clippers are a team without a discernible identity after trading away Chris Paul, but I like the moves they made after the trade. The defensive tenacity and heart of Patrick Beverly makes him valuable on any roster, and Lou Williams’ shooting is a proven spark off the bench. Best case scenario: Blake Griffin develops into the leader his play suggests he’s capable of being, Deandre Jordan and the Clippers guards figure out the pick and roll model CP3 pioneered, Doc Rivers works some lineup magic, and the Clippers give the Spurs a scare in the first round of the 3–6 matchup of the Western Conference. Worst-case scenario: Griffin gets injured again, and this team misses the playoffs and plummets as far as the lottery. As for the Lakers, well, no one can say that showtime is not back — at least in terms of media hype if not on-court production. Lonzo Ball will put up Rookie of the Year-caliber numbers, but the Lakers will still fall well short of making the playoffs; there just are not enough verified weapons on this team yet.
The Jazz — still with Rudy Gobert — and the Nuggets, are widely projected to fill out the remaining two playoff spots. The Blazers could end up over-performing and sneaking in, but the West is deep and the Blazers are not. If Damian Lillard is not snubbed for an All-Star pick this year, their season should be considered a success.
Questions surrounding the rest of the West: Will Devin Booker explode for 70 points again? Does Dallas have the Rookie of the Year on their roster (Dennis Smith Jr)? Will the Grizzlies overpay another aging, slightly above average player? How does Harry Giles perform after the Kings’ impose a three-month delay on the start of his season so he can prepare his knees for the rigors of an NBA schedule? We will get the answers to these questions, and more, over the course of the next six months, but if anything is for sure in the West, it is this: everything runs through Golden State.
The East is forecast to come down to Cleveland and Boston…again. Though there was substantial roster turnover for the Cavs and Celtics — last year’s one and two seeds — both, arguably, got better — exchanging all star point guards in the process. Cleveland’s acquisition of Jae Crowder gives them the 3 and D wingman they have been searching for ever since LeBron returned to Cleveland, and Isaiah Thomas, when healthy, will make up for most of the offensive load Irving left when he departed. What will be interesting is to see how Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade perform in the starting lineup. Starting Wade over J.R Smith will cost the Cavs early offensive explosiveness behind the arc. Rose and Wade combined to hit 58 three pointers last season, Smith alone made 95. Do not be surprised if after a frustrating habit of starting games off slow, the Cavs reinsert Smith at starting shooting guard and have Wade come off the bench as the sixth man. LeBron, however, seems genuinely motivated to recapture the MVP, and if this is true, it could mean he will power Cleveland to the tune of 30–12 before the All-Star break, regardless of who the Cavs roll out in their backcourt. The addition of Jeff Green, and the subsequent trading of Richard Jefferson and Kay Felder means Cleveland is the deepest, and most fiscally flexible it has been since LeBron returned in 2014. If Isaiah Thomas returns at full strength, the Cavs will be playing in June, and, win or lose, will have given it their best to entice LeBron to stay in Cleveland.
In Boston, Irving — if we are to believe his insistences — could prove capable of gelling with Al Horford (now that Gordon Hawyard is out for the year), contorting his game to be more of an all-round playmaker than the isolation killer he was in Cleveland. However, after parting ways with 11 members of its roster — that is 73 percent — I am not ready to bet on the Celtics just yet. Notable absences from the team that was the Eastern conference’s number one seed last year include Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk, Jonas Jerebko, Amir Johnson, and Tyler Zeller. While not all of these guys were volume contributors, they comprised the gritty, hardworking, underdog identity that defined Boston as a city, and endeared the Celtics to the average NBA fan. Now, chemistry, defense, and grit could be an issue for the Celtics. I have a feeling that, after a shaky start, Kyrie, Hayward, and Horford will get things together enough for the Celtics to earn 50 wins and the number two seed in the conference. Bold prediction: Kyrie receives more MVP votes than Steph Curry after putting together the most statistically complete season of his career, resulting in his team qualifying for the playoffs. If that proves to be true, Danny Ainge will have perfectly positioned the Celtics to make a run at Anthony Davis in free agency — cementing them as the NBA’s team of the future.
Down in Washington, budding super-star John Wall and his sidekick Bradley Beal are looking to make the leap into the upper echelon of NBA teams. Right now, they sit at third in their conference and about sixth or seventh in the overall landscape of the NBA. Based on the way Wall and Beal have been talking in the offseason, it sounds like the Wizards are looking to show everyone they are capable of challenging the East’s reigning elite. Their starting five has been together the longest in the East, so they will be afforded the advantage of good chemistry from the start of the season. This time, teams know they’re good and will adjust accordingly. Expect Washington to finish around 48 wins: 50 if they are as good as they say they are. On the minuscule chance that both Cleveland and Boston stumble to start the season, we could be looking at a three-way race for the conference’s number one seed.
As for Toronto, I am not sold on this team whatsoever. Sure, they retained much of their upper level talent, but Lowry disappears in the playoffs, DeRozan is fighting a losing battle by practically refusing to shoot threes, and there is no reliable third option for scoring. I can very easily see this team losing in the first round of the playoffs as the four or five seed to the Milwaukee Bucks.
On the Bucks, if you have a chance to watch a Milwaukee game this year, do it. Whether it is a whole game or just a quarter, make sure you see Giannis Antetokounmpo play. Kevin Durant dubbed him the potential G.O.A.T., Adidas sent him a van full of apparel and shoes to woo him to sign a sneaker contract in the offseason, and he led Milwaukee in points, assists, rebounds, steals, and blocks last year — just the fifth player in history to do so. Oh, he is also only 22 years old. If Giannis can develop a reliable shot from beyond fifteen feet, forget about it. No one would have an answer for him, on either side of the ball, and as long as the Bucks get proper contributions from Jabari Parker and reigning rookie of the year, Malcolm Brogdon, this team will qualify for the playoffs and be a serious nightmare matchup for anyone they face.
On to Charlotte. The Hornets will try to avoid the mediocrity and locker room problems Dwight Howard has exuded ever since he left Orlando behind the grit of underrated point guard Kemba Walker and the rookie, lights-out shooter they drafted — Malik Monk. Best case scenario: Howard makes net positive contributions, Walker plays well and stays healthy, Monk gets hot like he did in college, and the Hornets land in the 5–7 range come playoff time. A missed playoff appearance would be a major step back for Michael Jordan’s organization.
And now, for everyone’s guilty pleasure: the Philadelphia 76ers. It is between Philly, the Detroit Pistons, and the Orlando Magic — I cannot believe I just wrote that two teams projected to be around 36–46 are in the playoff hunt, but it just goes to show how steep the drop off in the East is — for the remaining two playoff spots. If you turned on a Sixers basketball game anytime within the last five years, you should be rooting for Philly to garner one of those spots. Not because watching them continuously tank, draft talent, and tank for the last half-decade again has been tortuous, and not because they have two potential Rookie of the Year candidates, but because even halfhearted NBA fans should want to see a potentially once-in-a-lifetime talent like Joel Embiid get payoff minutes. Last season, the Sixers outscored opponents by 3.2 points per 100 possessions when Embiid was on the floor, and according to Mitch Adams, an NBA statistician for ESPN, the Sixers were a 56-win team with Embiid on the floor and an 11 win team without him. Plus, the man owns twitter. Proof? His recent spat with Hassan Whiteside, his positional peer who he managed to roast while taking down Kevin Durant in the process (pun intended). Clearly, he is as gifted with his characters as he is with a basketball. Too much needs to go right for the Sixers to vault into the top half of teams in the east this season, but if they stay healthy and generate chemistry, we should all be rooting for and expecting a low-seed playoff berth. The prospect of the nothing-to-lose mentality Sixers versus heavyweights like the Cavs, or Celtics is simply too mouth-watering to root against.
Debatably intriguing questions across the rest of the East: How will Kristaps Porzingis fare in his fourth year with the circus — excuse me, the Knicks? Will the Pacers try to grind it out for a playoff spot, or will they embrace the tank in its last season of being indisputably rewarding for bottom feeding teams? Are Orlando, Brooklyn, and Atlanta even worth mentioning in this preview? Does Chicago win more games than Golden State loses?
While the regular season and some of the playoffs, will provide plenty of the petty drama we have come to know and love in the NBA, the finals should be anything but. If the Warriors and Cavs remain healthy, they will square off for the fourth time in a row this June — unprecedented in the modern era. Should Cleveland make it a series, like they did in 2016, it will all be worth it; if not, the NBA has some serious reckoning to do about the negative effect of superteams on its product.
