We are just about a week removed from the New Hampshire primary, and the Democratic nomination is still a bit of a toss-up. The beginnings of this primary cycle drew some apt comparisons to the Republican primary in 2016, when it seemed as though every politician with an “R” next to their name threw their hat into the ring. As time has gone on, the similarities to the 2016 Republican primary continue, as a once-abundant field of Democrats has shifted to a group of perceived front runners, with many prolific candidates falling from grace. Last spring when most candidates began declaring their intentions to run for president, very few pundits anticipated the first two contests being two person races between a young mayor from Southbend and a 78 year old democratic-socialist. With two weeks until Super Tuesday, each campaign is trying to show they belong, however, I think a lot of those efforts will be futile, and in the end Senator Bernie Sanders will be the nominee.

There has been a lot of conjecture over the plausibility of a Sanders nomination and I think a lot of that comes from media narratives. The first thing that needs to be dispelled is the notion that all of Sanders’ support comes from “Bernie Bros,” who are portrayed in the media as younger, toxic White men. In my opinion, Sanders has won the first two contests (he has won the popular vote in each state), and a large chunk of people believe this is a result of the predominantly white voter bases in these states matching up with the Bernie Bro base. This may come as a shock to a lot of people, but the candidate polling the best with non-white voters (especially Latinos) is Bernie Sanders. There is no denying that appealing to minorities was an issue for Sanders in the 2016 primary against Hillary Clinton, but that has changed, and the media has not properly portrayed this new narrative. The South Carolina primary is in ten days. Joe Biden once led by 28 percent in the polls as recently as late January. Sanders is now tied, and is polling better with Blacks under the age of 55 than Biden, and this is simply not talked about.

It is also important to note that Senator Sanders is garnering the majority of the progressive vote that a struggling Elizabeth Warren is also vying for. Her path to victory seems as slim as ever, and she has started to shift a bit more to the center with her rhetoric. Sanders’ main competition in the first two contests has been Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and this has been a shock to many. However I am hard pressed to believe that a man polling in single digits with voters of color has a chance to win the nomination. After Super Tuesday, when a chunk of Southern states hold their primaries, I don’t think Buttigieg will be able to stick around much longer. Buttigieg is one of the many candidates trying to appeal to the moderate base of the Democratic party, and with Biden, Klobuchar, Steyer, and now Bloomberg entering the fray, the moderate vote is undoubtedly split amongst these candidates, and this only boosts Sanders likelihood of victory.

Sanders excites the youth of this country unlike any candidate that has ran in a long time, and his polling with college students and more generally people ages 18–29 is fantastic. He has an army of dedicated individual donors that no other campaign comes close to rivaling, so money will not be a concern for Sanders. A lot of naysayers point to electability as being an issue for Sanders, believing that his “extreme” views will polarize Independents and voters in swing states. Frankly, I don’t know what this argument is backed by. Sanders polls incredibly well with Independents, and in the 2016 primaries it was Sanders who won key swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin (not to mention he was competitive all throughout the Rust Belt as a severe underdog). It is crucial to note that moderate views do not equate to Independent votes. Populist policy wins over the average voter. Donald Trump’s phony populism won over in 2016 against a moderate candidate, and all indications showed that Sanders would have won that election. Other voters complain that Sanders isn’t a “real” Democrat, but I find this to be a very shallow critique. I for one do not just vote for a label, but for an actual candidate. Is Joe Manchin, a Senator who has aligned with Trump on various issues including the Kavanaugh nomination more of a Democrat than Sanders simply because he is registered as one? Sanders has moved the Overton window of the Democratic party and has voted along their party lines for years.

All of these factors contribute to why I believe Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee. He fought for years to bring his ideas into the mainstream and he succeeded in doing that, and now his next step is winning the Democratic nomination. I firmly believe that Bernie Sanders gives the Democrats their best chance in defeating Donald Trump. He has consistently polled higher than Trump and brings the excitment needed to win.