Less than a month after Hurricane Florence struck the Carolina coasts on Sept. 14, 2018, an even stronger Hurricane Michael hit western Florida. Though the National Hurricane Center detected them early and allowed time to prepare, these storms have still devastated regions of the southeastern United States in terms of economic factors and loss of life, causing a combined $21 billion in damage and over 60 fatalities as of Oct. 15, 2018. The sheer strength and proximity of these hurricanes have led those affected, scientists, and concerned citizens alike to raise the question: is this natural?
From what scientists have determined, the best answer is probably not. Hurricanes are very difficult to predict and study, and the number of hurricanes per year is highly variable. This makes it nearly impossible to find any long-term trends in the frequency of hurricanes within the time frame it has been studied (since the 1970s). However, among the storms that have been studied, the frequency of category 4 or 5 hurricanes has doubled since the 1970s. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have wind speeds above 130 miles per hour, and twice as many hurricanes in recent years have reached these wind speeds, according to a 2005 study. This increase in strength, combined with 2012 data from tide surges indicating an upward trend in intensity, suggests that rising temperatures and climate change have made tropical storms and hurricanes more intense, with higher wind speeds and rainfall. The devastation that intense hurricanes cause is unfolding before our eyes, and further increases in intensity as our climate changes. This something, as a nation and a planet, we should do everything in our power to prevent.
The foreboding warning that these hurricanes present us with comes at a time rife with foreboding warnings; on October 8, 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a special report predicting that we, as a planet, have twelve years to take significant action to limit climate change before irreversible damage will occur. They are not saying that this damage will occur in twelve years; they are saying if the carbon levels in the atmosphere and global average temperatures continue to increase at their current rate for over twelve years, there will be irreversible, long-term damage to the environment in the future.
At the rate predicted (based on the current rate and recent increase in rate), the global average temperature will increase 1.5°C by 2030. This change may seem small, but as an average temperature change, this is monumental. Floods and droughts will be more extreme and frequent, hurricanes and tropical storms will be more intense, and most impactfully, large parts of the polar ice caps will melt, creating rising sea levels and possibly releasing methane from the sea ice as it melts, exponentially adding to the increase in temperature in what is hypothetically dubbed an “Arctic death spiral.” If this happens, according to the IPCC report, we can expect to see a 3–4°C increase in temperature by the end of the century, which compared to a 1.5°C increase, would be truly devastating to the planet. Taking action to prevent climate change is no longer just to be proactive, safe, or preferable. It is absolutely necessary for the future of our planet.
Taking action is, of course, far more complicated and difficult than it sounds. According to a Pew Research Center study in 2016, only 48 percent of Americans acknowledged that global warming is due to human activity, with 31 percent claiming it is due to natural causes and 20 percent going so far as to claim there is no evidence at all of warming. On what basis they make this claim is a mystery, but the point stands: the majority of this sample of Americans do not think humans have anything to do with climate change, or that the climate is not changing at all.
It seems now, amid an unprecedented amount of evidence to show that the carbon levels in the atmosphere are higher than they’ve been in 800,000 years and that the global temperature is rising at an unprecedented rate, that many Americans continue to deny climate change because of political consequences. It is no coincidence that conservative Republicans are “much less inclined to anticipate negative effects from climate change or to judge proposed solutions as making much difference in mitigating any effects,” according to the 2016 Pew study by Cary Funk and Brian Kennedy. The most popular proposed solutions to climate change are restrictions on power plant emissions, international agreements to limit emissions, tougher fuel efficiency standards for cars, corporate tax incentives, and individuals reducing their carbon footprint.
Three of these solutions, and a majority of others, fundamentally contradict conservative ideology, involving heavy regulation on private companies and the economy, drastic government-driven action, and a loss of jobs in the coal industry, an industry in which the majority of workers and executives are Republican voters. Now that we are in a position in which we have no choice but to take action to prevent further change in the climate, we must seek solutions that are more aligned with conservative and liberal ideology, as difficult as it may seem. These would certainly not the easiest nor most effective solutions, but if such solutions become the most popular, I predict quite a few Americans would suddenly happen to find the plethora of evidence showing that the climate is changing due to human activity much more compelling.
