This summer, the FIBA World Cup in the Philippines featured nations from across the globe, among them Slovenia. A country with a population of just 2 million reached the final round against titans such as the United States, Canada, and Serbia, all with rosters stacked with NBA talent. How many NBA players were on Slovenia’s roster? One: 24-year-old prodigy Luka Dončić. From a young age, Dončić was destined for greatness. After winning the Euroleague MVP with Real Madrid in 2018, he was selected third overall in that year’s NBA draft by the Dallas Mavericks. Since then, Dončić has become one of the NBA’s brightest stars. In five seasons, he’s eclipsed 27 points per game and been a member of the All-NBA First Team in four of five years. In spite of this, outside a conference finals appearance in 2022, the Mavericks’ shelves are bare. Why haven’t they won with Dončić?
It is possible that Dončić came into the league close to his peak already, but it still does not explain the lack of wins: two first round exits, one conference finals appearance, and the nadir of missing the play-in game this past season. It’s clear Dončić can score big in the regular season but he has not been able to when it matters most. Keep in mind, this is not the stacked Western Conference of yesteryear. James Harden and Kevin Durant left the conference, LeBron James and Steph Curry got old and brittle, and Jamal Murray missed two seasons with an ACL injury. In all this time, how could Luka have not made an NBA Finals? There are critiques to his game (heliocentric, lack of defensive effort and poor conditioning). But none should be major obstacles to getting out of the Western Conference. Instead, the Mavericks are an example of a situation I like to call “The Prodigy Problem.”
The term is a take on the famed “resource curse” phenomena. The resource curse describes a situation wherein a country is poor despite possessing oil or another valuable resource. This invariably leads to corruption and instability as there is no need to diversify the economy. Examples include Zambia with copper or Angola with oil. When an economy is heavily reliant on exporting a single resource, fluctuations in price can be catastrophic. It leads to underdevelopment of other sectors, and it can keep bad leadership in power due to the concentration of power in few hands.
What does this have to do with Dončić? Well, because a prodigy in any sport is a hot commodity. If a player can leapfrog the development path, it allows their team to compete for real prizes earlier and for longer. The Mavericks haven’t had to wait for Dončić to develop like the Bucks or Nuggets had to with Giannis and Jokic. He was ready the second he stepped on an NBA court. Dončić’s talent has let the Mavericks front office off the hook the last few years; they are content with the fact he will drag them to relevance. Additionally, his individual popularity has been good for business. The Mavericks will have 28 nationally televised games this season, eighth most among NBA teams and the most among teams who missed the playoffs last year. They’ve played in the pivotal Christmas Day block for three years straight after not appearing since 2011 in a finals rematch against the Miami Heat. Dončić’s jersey is one of the highest selling in the league. What’s there to complain about?
The problem isn’t that Dončić works. It’s that only Dončić works. He’s so good that nothing else has to be. In 2021, Rick Carslile, championship coach for 13 years, left the team with two years left on his contract due to disputes with Dončić. The Mavericks have tried to find a real running mate for him (Kristaps Porzingis, Jalen Brunson, now Kyrie Irving) to no avail. They traded for Davis Bertans’ horrible contract just to get rid of Porzingis’s bad deal that they signed him to. This was after giving up assets for him while he was coming off an ACL injury. These kinds of moves should sink a franchise but Dončić’s talents paper over the dysfunction. The front office shouldn’t receive all the blame. Who should they share it with? Dončić.
The offense has to run through Dončić. He has led the league in shot attempts for the last two years and expects to handle the ball at all times. The consequence is that it leaves teammates on the three point line, watching him, hoping to receive a kickout pass for their rehearsed three point shot. They are not so much teammates as they are spectators who are occasionally asked to participate on offense, then expected to pick up his slack on defense. If they call him out, they’ll be out just like Carslile. This is a fine model for January. It’s quickly exposed come May.
All of these problems culminated in last season when Dončić put on a show, reaching his highest career average ever of 32.4 points, only to be sidelined for 16 games due to injury and rest. At risk of missing the playoffs, they dealt critical role player Dorian Finney-Smith to acquire the talented but injury-prone Kyrie Irving. While the Mavericks seemed to improve, the lack of defense led to the team missing the playoffs for the first time since Dončić’s rookie year. All of it a consequence of a team that had a superstar and then wasted his abilities. Where have we seen all this before?
There’s a reason that ever since LeBron James languished on those early Cavaliers teams, he’s chosen to ink shorter contracts even as he ages and his risk of injury increases and foresight would tell him to simply bank the money. Like Dončić, James was their meal ticket, and made up for the front office’s bad signings and faulty decision-making. James knows that he has to keep constant pressure on his front office to build the best possible team around him. If they can only count on 1–2 guaranteed years of James and the guaranteed sell outs, national TV games and additional revenue he brings, ownership and the front office are going to do everything in their power to please him. In the long run, it doesn’t make for the best team building structure, but it allowed James to captain his hometown team to four straight finals trips and one title.
The Mavericks are now on the verge of a season with an MVP-caliber Dončić, an aging and brittle Irving, and not much else. Such is life when one suffers from the prodigy problem.