On Tuesday March 13, 2024, members of the Hamilton community came together in attending Here We Go Again: Presidential Election 2024, a Hamilton-sponsored virtual event. The hour-long discussion provided a platform for current students, faculty, administrators and alumni to share their insights regarding the upcoming Nov. presidential election. The James S. Sherman Professor of Government at Hamilton, Phillip Klinkner, displayed his expertise on the history of American political parties and elections alongside Sam Rosenfeld, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director for the Public Affairs and Policy Research Institute at Colgate University.
Klinkner began his discussion by clarifying certain misconceptions mainstream media may have incorrectly broadcasted regarding President Biden’s reelection bid. For one, Klinkner highlighted the unwavering support behind a second Biden election campaign and potential White House term. “The Democratic party is incredibly unified around [Biden’s] candidacy. When you look at progressives that might be inclined to challenge him, like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Bernie Sanders, they have nonetheless endorsed him. AOC even claimed he was “one of the best presidents in American history,” Klinkner stated. From a historical vantagepoint, Klinker added that “there is a consistent trend for the incumbent president to run again,” giving audience members a reasoning behind his attempt to remain in the White House for four more years.
Shifting gears to Trump’s election bid, Klinkner pointed out the GOP nominee’s distinctive quest to the White House. “When a candidate loses in the presidency, he loses and slumps into darkness. Trump is a unique political figure, didn’t accept his loss and convinced his party that he really is the incumbent.” Partly thanks to his “big lie rhetoric around the 2020 election,” which Klinkner states to have been “extremely effective,” Trump has cemented a hold on the Republican voter base coming into the Nov. general election. As a result, Klinkner noted that Trump’s direct political rivals have feared repercussions from confronting Trump and thus losing a significant portion of the GOP voter pool. “The calculus of Haley and DeSantis was that Trump would implode, people would see him declare bankruptcy, go to jail and go away. The same calculus that was used in 2016, but without an affirmative case as to why the other person isn’t a good candidate, you cannot beat them. This fed into Trump’s big lie notion and allowed him to run as an incumbent of his own.”
Rosenfeld continued the conversation by presenting notable pointers that could be crucial come Nov. For one, Rosenfeld discussed Biden’s recent polling numbers and approval ratings. “While [Biden’s] general approval numbers turned net negative in Aug. 2021, in the last 6 months he has barely budged over 40%. Recent polling has him at 37%. This could be due to Gaza demobilizing the party, but it doesn’t inspire confidence 9 months out,” he stated. Moreover, Biden is set to capitalize on Trump being an extreme polarizing figure on the political scene. “Trump is a uniquely unpopular figure and continues to be. Alternative candidates would be in a stronger position to run against Biden because Trump is such a polarizing figure.” Rosenfeld underlined the economic grievance Biden will have to overcome if he seeks to win the presidency: persistent inflation. “Compared to other economic problems former presidents have had to deal with, such as unemployment which is more acute, inflation is much more widespread and every American suffers from it. 2 years of dramatic increases in inflation leave its toll. The nation is catching up to the economic results, or lack thereof, and it could affect Biden’s chances at reelection,” Rosenfeld remarked. Looking into voting polls, Rosenfeld indicated an important shift in voting patterns, particularly with non-white voters shifting to the Republican camp. While Trump may have employed “racially-loaded language” over recent months, Rosenfeld calls attention to “racial realignment being the real story.” “The general theme is that with the same educational polarization, we are starting to see it among African-American men. This reflects in ideological sorting, non-white voters who think of themselves as conservative see themselves now as more Republican than Democrat,” Rosenfeld stated.
During the Q&A portion, both professors were asked about the normalization of political violence in the wake of the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol attack. Klinkner stated that “these individuals’ actions have been excused, even glorified by Trump. The Republicans have embraced a rhetoric of violence, such as the importance of violence in maintaining political order and fighting off the tyrannical government. It is very real and depressing, that is for sure.” The speakers were then asked about the chance third-parties might have in swaying the Nov. presidential election. Rosenfeld mentioned Robert Kennedy Jr. “It doesn’t take a lot of votes in Michigan, for instance, to make a difference between the Green Party and independents. Today, Kennedy’s numbers are similar to Ross Perot in 1996, which is notable, especially when we have two unpopular party candidates.”
Finally, Klinkner and Rosenfeld presented their personal insights with regards to the 2024 election. Klinkner noted that “regardless of the outcome, Trump will claim that he won. Even if he loses, he will claim fraud and that he was a winner. There is a certain ‘Flight 93 moment’ amongst the GOP: a life or death scenario threatening their existence, the idea that the demographic tides are running against the Republican party and if they don’t seize political control now, they will never have it again.” For his part, Rosenfeld remained optimistic. “I am reassured that even the serious MAGA republicans are lacking discipline and self-directed motivations. There are very robust reservoirs of resistance to what Trump wants to do and MAGA wants to do with the country. Trump as a leader does not inculcate a broad range of support, those reservoirs of resistance will mobilize to counter his efforts at establishing a dictatorship a day or longer.”
