Admittedly, I have only had a passing interest in the Oscars prior to last year. I have always enjoyed movies, but for the most part, I only took the time to see the major releases and paid little attention to small-budget or indie films that, while receiving critical acclaim, rarely garnered wide popularity.
2016 ignited an interest in lm that must have laid dormant in me years prior. I suspect the length and relative inactivity of Hamilton’s winter break had something to do with it, as well as the overlap between our break and the time of year when the best movies are usually released.
All in all, I saw ten movies in theaters over the course of Winter Break 2016, including all of the nominees for best picture. In turn, I experienced a heightened interest in Hollywood’s award season, having forged an emotional connection with my favorite movies from that year.
This year, I was determined to go even further. With the help of my MoviePass (cinephiles, check it out), I arrived home for break with a feeling of determination akin to Frances McDormand in
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
. The final tally? Fifteen movies. Over the course of the year, I saw twenty-seven, and while most of the non-December and January ones did not measure up to their wintery counterparts, a few — like
Get Out, Dunkirk
, and
Blade Runner 2049
— held up well.
Here are my predictions for how this year’s Academy Awards will play out for the major categories. Some categories like “Best animated feature” and “Best documentary,” while popular, are not listed, simply because I did not see enough of the nominated films in those groupings. These picks are not necessarily my own opinion of what film, actor, director, or production team should win; rather they are a forecast based on precedent, prestige, and current standing in popular culture. Later, I will list my personal favorite films of the year.
Best actor in a leading role
Gary Oldman is a heavy favorite to win here, despite a strong eld that includes Timothée Chalamet and Daniel Kaluuya, in addition to the legendary Denzel Washington and Daniel Day-Lewis (notably absent: James Franco, who delivered a transformative performance as Tommy Wiseau in
The Disaster Artist
but was likely left off the ballot amidst accusations of sexual misconduct). If I had a vote, I would go for Chalamet, who was fantastic in
Call Me By Your Name
and also provided a youthful dose of nihilism in
Lady Bird
. Oldman, however, appears to have this locked up for his commanding portrayal of Winston Churchill in
Darkest Hour
.
Prediction: Gary Oldman,
Darkest Hour
Best actress in a leading role
This is another stacked category, but one that also has probably been decided already. Saoirse Ronan now has three Oscar nominations at the age of 23, but, barring a sizable upset, her golden statue moment will have to wait. Margot Robbie was similarly excellent in
I, Tonya
and would be a front-runner in a different year, but in 2017, the odds are not in her favor. Sally Hawkins carried
The Shape of Water
as a deaf custodian who falls in love with a sea creature, and Meryl Streep also gets a cursory nod for her work in
The Post
(although I would have rather seen Jessica Chastain or Haley Lu Richardson in her place for
Molly’s Game
and
Columbus
, respectively). If Oldman is a lock in his category, however, Frances McDormand might as well be a steel vault in hers. She has already won a Screen Actors Guild(SAG) award and a Golden Globe for her performance in
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
, and if precedent holds up, she will win her second Academy Award next month.
Prediction: Frances McDormand,
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best actor in a supporting role
This category is a bevy of famous names, but the least known of the five is most likely to take home the prize. Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins, Woody Harrelson, and Christopher Plummer are all deserving nominees, but Sam Rockwell should give
Three Billboards
its second acting win of the night here, edging out Harrelson (his co-star) and Plummer (who replaced Kevin Spacey on short notice for
All the Money in the World
in the wake of sexual misconduct accusations). Dafoe has a chance to pull off the upset, but Rockwell’s nuanced and darkly comic portrayal of a truly bad cop was the best supporting work by a male actor this year.
Prediction: Sam Rockwell,
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best actress in a supporting role
Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf both play polarizing mothers in their nominated roles, so it is only right that they face off on the ballot for this award. Janney seems to have the clear edge at the moment, and while her performance in
I, Tonya
is certainly Oscar-worthy, I personally would choose Metcalf in this spot. Janney plays LaVona Fay Golden, the mother of Tonya Harding, and convincingly embodies the abuse, poverty, and selfishness that dominated both women’s lives. The character, however, is absent for large stretches of the movie, and her lack of screen time gives LaVona virtually zero redeeming qualities. With more opportunities for character development, Janney could have run away with this category, but in comparison to Metcalf, a constant presence in
Lady Bird
, it just doesn’t feel like the audience was given enough. For her part, Metcalf was superb as Lady Bird’s mother — at once loving and judgmental, fulfilled and bitter. In a tight race, her final scene in the movie — a silent, tearful shot of her driving away from the airport after dropping off her daughter to go to college — gives her the edge in my eyes. It would be an upset, but I am going with my gut and choosing Metcalf to win.
Prediction: Laurie Metcalf,
Lady Bird
Best director
Looking at the nominees for this category, it is clear that 2017 was an unusually fine year for film. Paul Thomas Anderson earns a surprising (but deserved) nomination for the late-blooming
Phantom Thread
, while two newcomers, Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele, solidified their status as exciting innovators in their directorial debuts,
Lady Bird
and
Get Out
, respectively. Lastly, there is Christopher Nolan for the exquisitely shot, minimalist, and unrelentingly tense
Dunkirk
, as well as Guillermo del Toro for
The Shape of Water
. Nolan will win this award someday, but this is del Toro’s year.
The Shape of Water
is entirely his, and the vision, precision, and meticulous execution behind it is evident in every shot. It is a lm that is hard to look away from because of its beauty, its characters, and the palpable love that went into its creation.
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro,
The Shape of Water
