The NBA playoffs are finally here, and the remaining eighteen teams have their eyes set on the Larry O’Brian Trophy. While this year’s playoff picture largely resembles that of last year’s, the arrival of both the Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic could pose a threat to the old guard. The real question is whether these inexperienced playoff teams will have the “just happy to be here” mentality or not. In the following paragraphs, I break down my first round predictions

#1 Boston over #8 Miami (4–0)

Don’t overthink this one. Historically, Erik Spolstrea has been the Celtic’s kryptonite, but asking his team to beat a historically good Celtics squad likely without his best player appears to be too tall of a task. If Chicago does manage to win, Bam Adebayo will find out that scoring against the combo of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday is far more difficult than doing so against Nikola Vucevic.

#2 Knicks over #7 Philadelphia (4–1)

Yes, I am aware that Joel Embiid is back. Yes, I am also aware that Julius Randle is out for the rest of the year. However, with Embiid’s health status still hanging in the balance, this could be a nightmarish matchup for the 76ers, unless Nicholas Batum turns in another legacy game. Just from watching the play-in game, Embiid’s ability to be a mobile defender in the paint seems to seriously be hampered, as is his ability to close out on three point shooters. Additionally, the combination of Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson should neutralize last year’s MVP at least somewhat. This doesn’t even account for the Jalen Brunson factor, nor the Knicks’ 20–3 record with OG Anunoby.

#3 Milwaukee over Indiana (4–2)

The concerns over Giannis Antetokounmpo’s calf injury should not be taken lightly; these types of injuries can last up to multiple weeks. If Giannis is back by mid-series however, Milwaukee should not have any trouble advancing to the next round. The playoff experience between the trio of Antetokounmpo, Dame, and Middleton should be plenty enough to beat a Pacers’ team without much playoff experience other than mid-season acquisition Pascal Siakam. While the Pacers have put up astounding offensive numbers, pacing slows down during the playoffs. This will hurt a team that is incredibly reliant on scoring in transition. Tyrese Haliburton’s shooting down the stretch of the season (31 percent from three since his return from injury) also does not inspire much confidence.

#5 Orlando over #4 Cleveland (4–1)

Donovan Mitchell’s last game with the Cavs will likely resemble that of last year’s Game 5 against the Knicks. This series could get ugly for Cleveland, whose lack of wing depth could come back to bite them. An Orlando Magic lineup of Suggs, Wagner, Banchero, Isaac, and Carter is as good of a defensive lineup as you will see on either side of the playoff bracket, and the Cavs’ inability to stretch the floor with Mobely and Allen could clog the paint for Garland and Mitchell, slowing down the Cavalier offense.

#1 Oklahoma City over #8 New Orleans (4–1)

While SGA has gotten all of the spotlight, do not forget about Jalen Williams, who I am fairly convinced could score 30 a game if he was on a different team, or Chet Holmgren, who would have been Rookie of the Year if a seven feet foot four guy from France didn’t exist. Oh well. The Pelicans should not pose too much of a threat, especially missing Zion, and reliant on an inconsistent Brandon Ingram.

#2 Denver over #7 Los Angeles (4–0)

While Lakers fans will find almost any excuse to point to in losing to the Nuggets during last years’ WCF, you can’t argue with facts. Here’s one — it’s been over two calendar years since the Lakers beat them. When in doubt, don’t bet against the team with the best player on the planet and has the same starting five as last year’s champions.

#6 Phoenix over #3 Minnesota (4–3)

While Naz Reid has been terrific this season on both ends of the floor and will almost certainly win 6MOTY, he’s not Karl Anthony Towns. Without KAT, Minnesota is even more reliant on superstar Anthony Edwards to create offense for them. This series has no shortage of terrific matchups; Minnesota’s defensive prowess vs. Phoenix’s offensive firepower should be something to watch for, as is the Anthony Edwards and Devin Booker matchup. Look for Frank Vogel to play Kevin Durant at the five in order to drag Rudy Gobert out to the perimeter.

#4 Los Angeles over #5 Dallas (4–3)

While BetMGM’s John Ewing reported this past Friday afternoon that 96 percent of the money was on the Mavericks to come out on top, I am fading the public on this one. While Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been unbelievable of late, so has Paul George. The key for the Clippers is Kawhi Leonard, who when healthy might be the best “get a stop, get a bucket” guy in the league. I expect James Harden to have at least one or two stinkers this series, which means the duo of George/Leonard will have to match the output of Doncic/Irving, no small feat.