Last week, the 2017–2018 NBA regular season came to a close. Full of record breaking statistical achievements, sensational highlights, subtweets, mega-trades, MVP debates, and contradiction over the definition of “rookie”, the 2017–2018 regular season was everything athletes, sports pundits and fans have come to love about NBA basketball. As usual, all the fun and drama has given way to the best eight teams from the Eastern and Western Conference, with each team looking to battle their way to the NBA’s most coveted prize: the Larry O’Brien trophy.
The 2018 playoff season has potential to be more polarizing and trend-setting than the regular season. For starters, the two teams from the last three finals, Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, look more vulnerable than most experts and league executive believed them to be when the season started. Though Cleveland is the Vegas betting favorite to win the Eastern Conference (45 percent chance at the start of the playoffs) statistical models like FiveThirtyEight’s Elo forecasting gives Cleveland a mere 14 percent chance at taking the eastern conference crown for a fourth straight year — well behind Toronto and Philly’s respective 42 1/3 percent marks. Golden State, meanwhile, is dead even with this year’s breakout contender, the Houston Rockets, at a 44 percent chance of advancing to the finals. As a result, the 2018 playoffs figure to feature the most conference parody of the last three years, potentially making the months of April through June some of the most exciting in recent memory.
Most experts concur that the East is more up for grabs than the West, and for good reason. The Toronto Raptors, barring an uneven last five games of the season, nearly won 60 games en route to a comfortable four game cushion ahead of the second-seed, the Boston Celtics. However, neither team faces a cakewalk in the first round. The Raptors will have to contend with a disappointing Washington Wizards squad that just regained the talents of All-Star point guard John Wall. Though reports of chemistry issues have been swirling around this team since Wall’s injury earlier in the season, the Wizard’s core has been together longer than any other team in the east, and if they gel, they feel like they can go toe to toe with anyone. The key for the Raptors will be to achieve the same regular season success in the playoff — a proposition that seems obvious but has eluded the Raptors in recent playoff campaigns. If Jed Lowry and Demar DeRozan can keep their field goal percentages from plummeting in the playoffs, and the bench can stay productive, the Raptors should be able to pull out this series in five games.
As for the Celtics, they could be in for a dog fight. It is a testament to Brad Stevens’ coaching ability that this team earned a f50 win season after losing Gordon Hayward six minutes into their first game and then held on to the two seed after losing star point guard Kyrie Irving for the season on Mar. 11. Their reward? Superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. Though the Celtics possess the better coach and home court advantage, this matchup will be particularly challenging because Milwaukee’s length on defense will expose Boston’s lack of one-on-one playmaking. Without Irving, the Bucks have the undisputed best player in the series. Do not be surprised if this one goes to six or seven games.
The Sixers and Cavaliers both possess potential first round challenges as well. Philadelphia will be without big man Joel Embiid for at least the first two games of the series, leaving Philadelphia exposed to the interior force of Hassan Whiteside and Amir Johnson. Without Embiid’s rim protection the scrappy Heat will look to pound the ball into the paint against the Sixers. Fortunately, Philly fans have the eventual Rookie of the Year Ben Simmons to rely on. Simmons carried the Sixers to a sixteen game winning streak to end the season, a streak that included an impressive win over the Cavaliers, which all but ensured that Philly would claim the three seed. If the Sixers can hold home court advantage in the first two games, and get Embiid back in Miami, they could pull this out in five or six games and ensure some rest as they await the winner of Boston and Milwaukee.
For Cleveland, Indiana is a tougher opponent than most would think. Though these two teams matched up in the first round of last year’s playoffs, both rosters have been overhauled to the point where comparisons between the matchups do little good. Indiana over-performed throughout the regular season and will need a big series from Victor Oladipo if they wish to hand LeBron his first career loss in the first round of the playoffs. The Cavs will look to flip their “playoff switch,” a higher gear they have managed to reach each of the last three years. However, if all the new faces in The Land make flipping said switch more difficult than in years past, the Cavs could be in for a long first round series. They still have the best player in the world, in LeBron James, but their shaky defense and lack of lineup continuity could be enough to push this series six or more games.
Out West, the conference is a little more top heavy. Houston and Golden State have favorable first round matchups against the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs, respectively. The Wolves’ reward for ending a fourteen year playoff drought and making Spec Sports Editor Patrick Malin ’18, the happiest lad in the land, is an unfavorable matchup with Houston. Houston won the regular season series 4–0 and there’s little reason to suspect this series will not be over in four or five games. The Wolves have a change to slow the pace of the game down by putting Jimmy Butler and Karl Anthony Towns in the post, but Houston’s stellar defense and other-worldly offense should be able to compensate for whatever strategies the Wolves try to implement.
Golden State fans may have some concerns, albeit not in the first round. Though the Spurs are usually a formidable opponent against anyone, this San Antonio iteration is the first team in eighteen years not to win 50 or more games in a season, and will likely be without All-Star forward Kawhi Leonard for the entire postseason. Even without Steph Curry, the Warriors have enough star power to overcome the strategical wizardry of Gregg Popovich. Additionally, many Warriors players are treating the playoffs like the fresh start they desperately need. After going 7–10 to close out the regular season, Warriors players are asserting that they have championship pedigree they can tap into for the playoffs. With the return of Steph Curry looming in the second round, the Warriors should get back to championship mode early in the playoffs.
Seeds three through six in the West should be some of the most exciting series in the entire first round. Damian Lillard and the streaking Portland Blazers take on one man wrecking crew Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans as the three-six matchup. Whichever team’s star has a better series between Lillard and Davis will likely be the one to pull out the series, though Portland is deeper and has home court advantage. Given Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holliday’s length, the Pelican’s backcourt matches up nicely with Lillard and C.J McCollum and could force the dynamic duo into a few bad games. Should this scenario play out, Davis and Co. could pull out a seven game upset and give Davis his first career playoff series win.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz make for an intriguing four versus five matchup. Oklahoma has the higher ceiling and home court advantage, but Utah has a balanced offense lead by Donovan Mitchell, and a stalwart defense anchored by Rudy Gobert. The biggest factor in this series should be experience. Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony — the trio that comprises the Thunder’s core — are seasoned playoff vets who are used to performing under intense pressure and scrutiny. Sensational rookie Donovan Mitchell, the Jazz’s offensive engine, on the other hand, will be making his playoff debut with less support than Westbrook, George, and Anthony should he falter for a game or two. Since Oklahoma is playoff tested, they should be able to take down Utah, which has a bright future ahead, in five or six games.
For conference finals matchups, the best case scenario for fans would look like this: Houston vs. Golden State and Cleveland vs. Philly. Both matchups have plenty of star power and feature the old guard of the conference verses surging young contenders. Interestingly, each matchup would feature teams that are modeled similarly. Houston embraces the three like Golden State and is lead by a star with an unstoppable move beyond the arc, and Philly, like Cleveland touts a 6’ 10” do it all forward as the engine of their offense. Given these teams’ similarity, they would match up nicely with one another, making these series tantalizingly exciting for fans of the game.
As for the finals, any iteration of those four teams would be enjoyable to watch. Do not be surprised, however, if, after all of the potential upsets and changing of the guard, Golden State Squares off against Cleveland for the fourth year in a row.
